Singular Spectrum Analysis: Methodology and Comparison

In recent years Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA), used as a powerful technique in time series analysis, has been developed and applied to many practical problems. In this paper, the performance of the SSA technique has been considered by applying it to a well-known time series data set, namely, monthly accidental deaths in the USA. The results are compared with those obtained using Box-Jenkins SARIMA models, the ARAR algorithm and the Holt-Winter algorithm (as described in Brockwell and Davis (2002)). The results show that the SSA technique gives a much more accurate forecast than the other methods indicated above.ARAR algorithm; Box-Jenkins SARIMA models; Holt-Winter algorithm; singular spectrum analysis (SSA); USA monthly accidental deaths series

On the globalization of stock markets: An application of Vector Error Correction Model, Mutual Information and Singular Spectrum Analysis to the G7 countries

This paper analyzes stock market relationships among the G7 countries between 1973 and 2009 using three different approaches: (i) a linear approach based on cointegration, Vector Error Correction (VECM) and Granger Causality; (ii) a nonlinear approach based on Mutual Information and the Global Correlation Coefficient; and (iii) a nonlinear approach based on Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA). While the cointegration tests are based on regression models and capture linearities in the data, Mutual Information and Singular Spectrum Analysis capture nonlinear relationships in a non-parametric way. The framework of this paper is based on the notion of market integration and uses stock market correlations and linkages both in price levels and returns. The main results show that significant co-movements occur among most of the G7 countries over the period analyzed and that Mutual Information and the Global Correlation Coefficient actually seem to provide more information about the market relationships than the Vector Error Correction Model and Granger Causality. However, unlike the latter, the direction of causality is difficult to distinguish in Mutual Information and the Global Correlation Coefficient. In this respect, the nonlinear Singular Spectrum Analysis technique displays several advantages, since it enabled us to capture nonlinear causality in both directions, while Granger Causality only captures causality in a linear way. The results also show that stock markets are closely linked both in terms of price levels and returns (as well as lagged returns) over the 36 years analyzed

Microseismic event location and passive seismic imaging of crustal structures

This research is aimed to develop a migration-based earthquake location algorithm and a passive seismic imaging approach to investigate microseismicity and image steep crustal structures in the mining area Schlema-Alberoda. The dataset includes single-component records of several microseismic events which occurred between 1998 and 2012 in the area. Through some tests and comparisons, the accuracy of the localization algorithm is proved. An expected extension of pre-existing faults within the granitic body and the connection between some of the structures is comfirmed by the location results. The passive imaging procedure is conducted using only P-wave secondary arrivals from the relocated events and by applying 3-D coherency migration. The reliability of the passive imaging results is verified by comparing the final image with the results of a 3-D active reflection seismic survey in the same area. In addition, the passive image complements the 3-D active image and reveals new structures that have not been imaged previously

A Method for Proper Noun Extraction in Kurdish

This paper suggests a method for proper noun identification in Kurdish texts. Kurdish proper nouns are not capitalized and they also assume other part-of-speech roles, which leads to a broad ambiguity that should be addressed in Kurdish proper noun recognition applications. Kurdish is also among less-resourced languages. We developed an application based on an architecture which includes a number of name lists, a set of rules, and a set of processes that recognizes Kurdish person names. This can help the study of Information Retrieval (IR) in Kurdish to advance and can also be used in Kurdish machine translation. We conducted several experiments which showed that the precision of the method is more than 95%, the recall is between 40% to 80%, and the F-measure is close to 60% to more than 80%. The reason for the low recall precision was because our name lists were not exhaustive enough to cover the vast majority of the Kurdish names

Global Competition needs Smart Solutions, Urban Design Elements on City Branding

Globalization is one of the most important issues that changes cities. Global competition makes cities to need a range of solutions in order to be different from opponents and attract more economical investments. Branding is a customary topic for economics but globalization, attracting more investments and tourists to cities caused the topic an emerging subject for urban design and planning. Contemporary researches on integrated sustainable city can be turned into reality with city branding approaches. One of the fundamental decisions of urban studies approaches is to manage urban and spatial planning according to the urban design elements on city branding and identity of place. City branding is a smart solution for urban development, creation of jobs and providing a greater place to live and work. Advertisement and communication technologies could have a key effect on city branding. Mobile apps and websites can be used to deliver city branding goals and a lot of cities used ICT as a key policy to present their brand. But urban design elements on city branding should be represented in these activities in order to express the unique brand of the city and the elements are not the same in different cities. These elements should be identified and appraised in the cities rather than relying on stereotypical responses to a commercial order. This study considers key urban design disciplines and previous attitudes on city branding to offer a framework for urban design elements on city branding. This concept introduces the elements in main approaches and dimensions. In order to introduce urban design elements on city branding, this study uses a laboratory experiment that happened during Fourth International Conference on Urban and Extra Urban Studies 2013, Amsterdam, The Netherlands and concluded fourteen urban design elements for Amsterdam brand

On the Number of Nonnegative Solutions to the Inequality a1 +....ar < n

In this paper, we present a simple and fast method for counting the number of nonnegative integer solutions to the equality a1x1+a2x2+: : :+arxr = n where a1; a2; :::; ar and n are positive integers. As an application, we use the method for finding the number of solutions of a Diophantine inequality

Time-Varying Risk Aversion and the Profitability of Carry Trades: Evidence from the Cross-Quantilogram

open access articleThis paper examines the predictive power of time-varying risk aversion over payoffs to the carry trade strategy via the cross-quantilogram methodology. Our analysis yields significant evidence of directional predictability from risk aversion to daily carry trade returns tracked by the Deutsche Bank G10 Currency Future Harvest Total Return Index. The predictive power of risk aversion is found to be stronger during periods of moderate to high risk aversion and largely concentrated on extreme fluctuations in carry trade returns. While large crashes in carry trade returns are associated with significant rises in investors’ risk aversion, we also found that booms in carry trade returns can be predicted at high quantiles of risk aversion. The results highlight the predictive role of extreme investor sentiment in currency markets and regime specific patterns in carry trade returns that can be captured via quantile-based predictive models